Are We There Yet? Growth, rebalancing and the psuedo-recovery by SPERI Research Fellow Craig Berry – which exposes startling statistics behind the various claims of ‘recovery’ made by the Coalition government – is out today. Craig has been summarising various parts of the paper in a series of blog posts but you can read the full thing with all the nitty-gritty detail in the paper published today.
You can download the paper free below:
In 2013, economic growth in Britain started to gather pace, after several years of under-performance. This has led to claims that the British economy is finally recovering, and moreover, that the ‘austerity’ pursued by the coalition government since 2010 has been successful. This paper offers a sustained scrutiny of such claims, and examines evidence on whether the economy is ‘rebalancing’ away from the key aspects of the pre-crisis growth model – as promised by the coalition government upon taking office. The paper argues that the resurgence of growth is, to some extent, illusory. Insofar as the economy is experiencing recovery, it is best characterised as a ‘pseudo-recovery’ in that it has been facilitated by a return to the pre-crisis growth model. Given that the flaws and contradictions of the pre-crisis growth model have not been addressed by the coalition government, the recovery is likely to prove unsustainable.