SPERI Paper No.43: Revisiting the developmental state
This paper, edited by Matt Bishop and Tony Payne, brings together a number of eminent experts on the subject of the ‘developmental state’: Kunal Sen, Shaun Breslin, Ziya Öniş, Valbona Muzaka, David Booth, Courtney Lindsay and Henry Wai-chung Yeung. The notion of a ‘developmental state’ is a key concept in the political economy of development. The simultaneous failure of neoliberal free market fundamentalism to deliver rising living standards in the West and the contrasting success of high levels of intervention in China, especially, have reignited interest in the concept. The authors each offer pithy, incisive accounts of key points of controversy and debate as they revisit and look afresh at the notion of a developmental state.
SPERI Paper No.42: The role of competition and ideas in Britain’s abolition of capital controls, 1977-9 by Jack Copley
This paper seeks to challenge the conventional wisdom regarding the role of competition and ideas in capital control liberalisation through a close historical examination of Britain’s abolition of exchange controls. These controls were scrapped in four stages, involving both the Thatcher administration and its Labour predecessor over the years 1977-9. The paper argues that rather than this deregulatory policy being chiefly motivated by a desire to promote the City of London’s global prospects or by an ideological commitment to the free market, the explanation for this liberalisation must be sought in the stagflation crisis that confronted policy-makers during this time
SPERI Paper No. 41: The Political Economy of Brexit and the UK’s National Business Model
The paper draws contributions from the organisers of a workshop series on Brexit funded by the White Rose Consortium, Scott Lavery (SPERI, Sheffield), Lucia Quaglia (York) and Charlie Dannreuther (Leeds) as well as contributions from Gabriel Siles-Brugge (Warwick), Nicole Lindstrom (York), Ben Rosamond (Copenhagen), Scott James (KCL) and Jonathan Perraton (Sheffield). Written in the period between the June 2016 vote and the March 2017 Article 50 ‘trigger’, the paper offers an overview of the political economy of Brexit across a number of policy areas, including finance, trade, investment, the labour market, regional development and EU integration.
SPERI Paper No. 40: Political Economy and the Paradoxes of Macroprudential Regulation by Andrew Baker
This Paper takes a close look at macroprudential regulation by engaging with its constituent concepts and how they interrelate to one another. The author argues that the emerging political economy of macroprudential regulation revolves around five paradoxes. The first three of these are paradoxes that characterise the financial system and are identified by the macroprudential perspective. In seeking to respond to these paradoxes, macroprudential policy generates a further two distinctly institutional and political paradoxes. The last of these is a central bankers’ paradox which relates to the source of independent central bank authority and the difficulty of building legitimacy and public support for macroprudential regulation.
SPERI Paper No. 39: British Business Strategy, EU Social and Employment Policy and the Emerging Politics of Brexit by Scott Lavery
This Paper highlights Brexit might change how British businesses engage with EU institutions in order to further their objectives. Through a document analysis of business responses to the Balance of Competences Review on EU Social and Employment Policy and CBI policy documents between 2010-2016, the author Scott Lavery outlines how British business has attempted to ‘defend and extend’ a liberalising agenda in the EU throughout the pre-referendum period. It is argued that Brexit fundamentally undermines this strategic orientation. The Paper concludes with some of the key strategic dilemmas which the ‘leave’ vote generates for British capital within the emerging politics of Brexit.
SPERI Paper No. 38: European Union Financial Regulation, Banking Union, Capital Markets Union and the UK by Lucia Quaglia
As part of the project on Diverging Capitalisms with FEPS and Policy Network, we are pleased to publish a new paper by Professor Lucia Quaglia which analyses the EU reforms in three key financial policy areas – financial regulation, Banking Union and Capital Markets Union – and the role played by the preferences and influence of the United Kingdom (UK) within them. She argues that the UK has played a variety of roles – ‘foot-dragger’, ‘fence-sitter’ and ‘pace-setter’ – in the policy areas under discussion. The (at times considerable) British influence was geared towards the attainment of preferences that were shaped by domestic politics and political economy, primarily the interests of the financial services industry and the City of London.
SPERI Paper No. 37: Rethinking the fiscal and monetary political economy of the Green State by Dan Bailey
This Paper investigates an under-theorised contradiction in the political economy of the Green State; a Robyn Eckersley concept which fosters a debate on how state capacity and legitimacy can be pragmatically utilised in order to realise environmental protection. The contradiction identified centres upon the operationalisation of an interventionist state, the move beyond economic growth, and the deference afforded to the ceteris paribus conventions of state financing. The author argues that the three cannot co-exist harmoniously, given the ramifications of moving beyond growth for the fiscal capacity of the state. Therefore, there is a need to go further than even Eckersley does in re-politicising and challenging capitalist conventions. Specifically, Eckersley’s own critical constructivist approach is invoked to interrogate the capitalist conventions that constitute the constraints surrounding state financing, such as the de-politicised production of money and the viability of debt relations.
SPERI Paper No. 36: What Brexit and austerity tell us about economics, policy and the media by Simon Wren-Lewis
This new Paper is the transcript of Simon Wren-Lewis’s Prize-winning Lecture: What Brexit and austerity tell us about economics, policy and the media.
In this Paper, Simon Wren-Lewis tackles the inconsistencies and inaccuracies reported in the media about austerity and Brexit. He calls for journalists to bring in academic expertise and to prick the Westminster bubble.
This Paper explores the negative impacts of H.M. Treasury powers and policy priorities on the development of the British ‘environmental state’. A growing literature uses the term ‘environmental state’ to refer to the new roles and institutional capacities that the modern capitalist state has acquired in relation to the environment and the unfolding ecological crisis. The paper considers the implications of the Treasury for the British environmental state’s ability to have a transformative impact.
The Paper argues that recent incursions by the Treasury into environmental, energy and industrial policy can be seen as part of a broader strategy to repair the pre-2008 accumulation model, reflecting a historical tendency on the part of the Treasury to stress minimally adaptive accumulation model repair over transformation. In the process, the institutional capacities through which the British environmental state might be used to pursue a ‘green industrial strategy’ and bring about an ecological transformation of that accumulation model are being sacrificed.
SPERI Paper No. 33: Critical Transformations: Rethinking Zambian Development by Nicholas Jepson and Jeffrey Henderson
This Paper seeks to retheorise the trajectory of Zambian development since the country’s independence. It emerges from a larger project designed to break with current discourses and rethink development more generally on the basis of ‘transformation’, with particular attention paid to the circumstances under which periods of ‘critical transformation’ are likely to occur in particular national and subnational contexts. Beginning with an account of the conceptual and epistemological issues associated with this approach, the paper then explores the utility of ‘transformation analysis’ categories via a re-interpretation of Zambian development. It maps in detail the ways in which key enduring vectors of transformation have combined over time, along with a variety of other intervening dynamics and contingencies, to drive the sequences and trajectories of transformation observed in Zambia since independence.
SPERI Paper No. 32: Riding the Tiger: Towards a New Growth Strategy for the Anglo-American Left by David Coates
Designing an alternative growth model seems to occupy the mind of politicians and academics alike in Britain and America. But what are we trying to grow? And why are existing progressive packages not sufficient? This Paper tackles both those questions simultaneously and seeks to establish three main propositions as it does so. (1) We are at a watershed moment in both US and UK politics and economy, a moment that both marks the end of a particular growth period and opens the transition to another. (2) This is the second such watershed moment in post-war US and UK history, and a proper understanding of the growth periods divided by them is key to grasping the trajectory of progressive politics that we now inherit. (3) The legacy of the failed Reagan/Thatcher growth model is currently so huge and so daunting that only the formulation of an entirely new growth strategy will help resolve that legacy in a progressive direction.
SPERI Paper No. 31: Exploding Europe: Germany, the Refugees and the British Vote to Leave by Wolfgang Streeck
In this Paper Wolfgang Streeck argues that Angela Merkel’s decision to open up Germany’s borders during Europe’s ‘refugee crisis’ of late summer 2015 was ‘without doubt a major force’ behind Brexit. Merkel’s response to the 2015 refugee crisis, Streeck states, was driven in part by a need to attract new workers to the German labour market to address their ageing population, but also to deflect attention away from Germany’s treatment of Greece and to claim the moral high ground by presenting a favourable contrast to the treatment of refugees at the ‘Jungle’ camp in France.
SPERI Paper No. 30: Rethinking The Political Economy of Development Beyond ‘The Rise of the BRICS’ by Matthew Bishop
This Paper revisits the ‘rise of the BRICS’ by challenging the notion itself, which according to the author Matthew Bishop, is a hollow phrase and only describes shifts in the contemporary global political economy. Using this critique as a point of departure, this paper interrogates prevailing ways of thinking about the political economy of development in a rapidly changing global order. ‘The Rise of the BRICS’ is rejected as a useful conceptual device, but is considered nonetheless to embody a number of hidden implications that, once identified, represent important avenues for rethinking development today.
SPERI Paper No. 29: Dodd-Frank: From Economic Crisis to Regulatory Reform by Basak Kus
This Paper looks at how the US system of financial regulation has come under increased criticism in the aftermath of the 2008 economic crisis. As the crisis deepened, regulatory reform became a political necessity but no consensus existed on what direction reform should take. In 2010, after a long political battle, the US Congress passed the Dodd-Frank Act. This paper examines how the bill took the form it did, and in particular, how the creation of a federal agency dedicated to consumer financial protection – one of the most, if not the most, controversial of reform ideas floating around – became one of its main elements.
SPERI Paper No. 28: Innovation, research, and the UK’s productivity crisis by Richard Jones
Professor Richard Jones shows that the UK’s slowdown in productivity is unprecedented and argues that, if this trend continues, UK living standards will continue to stagnate and the government’s ambition to eliminate the deficit will fail. The paper explores the connection between the UK’s poor productivity performance and the low R&D intensity of its economy in several industrial sectors, and tests some explanations of the productivity slowdown.
SPERI Paper No. 27: The Resurrected Right and Disoriented Left by Craig Berry
Craig Berry explores the political economy of growth model transformation in Britain, analyses the political narratives offered by the British centre-left since the crisis, and argues that none have so far offered an effective transformative alternative.
Craig’s paper is complemented by a set of responses from five leading thinkers from the worlds of politics, policy and academia: Martin Craig; Tony Greenham; Rachel Laurence; Adam Leaver and Stewart Wood.
Paper No. 26: The Unfulfilled Promise of Social Rights in Crisis EU by Robbie Pye and Owen Parker
This Paper shows that the response to the Eurozone crisis has seen the empowerment of executive political actors and the hardening of a neoliberal macroeconomic strategy within the EU premised on achieving competitiveness by constraining the wages and conditions of workers. The social cost of this response has been severe and has undermined the legitimacy of the European project, which the governance structures of the Eurozone, in their current form, are unable to address.The authors argue that the EU is capable of taking immediate steps to redress this social crisis by incorporating rights mechanisms based on the EU’s Charter of Fundamental Rights into the governance of the Eurozone and by looking outside the EU to the European Committee of Social Rights for appropriate standards on social rights. These steps build on developments already present in the EU, but have hitherto been side-lined in the response to the Eurozone crisis, and are thus achievable in the short term.
Download SPERI Paper No. 26: The Unfulfilled Promise of Social Rights in Crisis EU.
Paper No. 25: Building a Growth Strategy on a New Social Settlement by David Coates
In the wake of the 2015 election defeat, centre-left politics in the UK requires a fundamental makeover. The paper argues that the redesign needed is one both of method and of content. Successful progressive politics always requires the building of a credible counter-hegemonic project. The building of that project needs to begin now.
Download SPERI Paper No. 25: Corporate Welfare State: Public Provision for Private Businesses.
Paper No. 24: Corporate Welfare State: Public Provision for Private Businesses by Kevin Farnsworth
Although it is widely assumed that public services are organised and delivered for the sole benefit of citizens, the reality is very different. In this ground-breaking report, Dr Farnsworth of the University of York seeks to conceptualise the function, as well as the size, of the British corporate welfare state to inform a much needed debate about the ways in which corporate welfare is funded and delivered.
Download SPERI Paper No. 24: Corporate Welfare State: Public Provision for Private Businesses.
Paper No. 23: The Failure of Austerity by Robert Skidelsky
This Paper is drawn from the Annual SPERI Lecture given by Lord Robert Skidelsky in The Octagon at the University of Sheffield on 19th May 2015. In his lecture Lord Skidelsky deplored the ‘appallingly’ low level of public debate about economic matters. We are pleased to publish his lecture as a SPERI Paper, hence contributing to a better understanding of the intellectual arguments dividing advocates of austerity and their critics.
Download SPERI Paper No. 23: The Failure of Austerity.
Paper No. 22: Inequality Redux by SPERI Staff & Students
From February to April 2015, SPERI Comment: the political economy blog ran a series of linked posts by SPERI staff and students, all devoted to the theme of inequality. The posts were intended to paint into place a different backcloth to the issues that were being debated in the British General Election campaign that was running as the posts were published. Inequality was very much the dog that did not bark very loudly in that campaign. Now that the election is over and a new majority Conservative government has been elected in Britain, SPERI republishes the series of posts as a contribution to the cause of continuing the debate in Britain about the deeply worrying trend in society and political economy towards intensified inequality.
Download SPERI Paper No. 22: Inequality Redux.
Paper No. 21: The Moment when ‘Then’ became ‘Now’: Reflections on the Winter of Discontent after the Opening of the Archives by Colin Hay
In this paper Colin Hay reflects on the first book length studies of the period covering the Winter of Discontent published since the opening of the archives. He argues that although neither study profoundly alters our view of this crucial episode and its place in the pre-history of Thatcherism, taken together the evidence they bring to light might provide the basis for an alternative assessment. Ultimately, however, such an assessment requires more attention to methodology and, above all, an approach to the archives and to witness testimony that is both more inductive and more deductive than that exhibited in the existing literature. In the process the author hopes to clarify what we now know and we have still to learn about the Winter of 1978-79 and the popular mythology to which it gave rise.
Download SPERI Paper No. 21: The Moment when ‘Then’ became ‘Now’: Reflections on the Winter of Discontent after the Opening of the Archives.
Paper No. 20: The Revenge of Sovereignty: the SNP, the Financial Crisis and UK Constitutional Reform by James Stafford
This paper offers a critical examination of the interaction between the SNP’s constitutional agenda, its shifting attitude to EU integration, and its economic policy goals. It adopts a historical perspective stretching back to the 1970s, and relates the SNP’s vision of social democracy as enhanced regional development policy to the 1990s European legal discourses of ‘post-sovereignty’ and ‘subsidiarity’. It asserts that there are few substantive differences between the post-sovereign model of independence proposed in the Referendum of 2014 and the ‘full fiscal autonomy’ demanded by the SNP at the 2015 UK General Election. It questions whether this policy response is really adequate to the condition of the UK economy following the financial crisis of 2007-9 and the ongoing crisis in the Eurozone. Finally, it makes some suggestions towards an alternative model of reform that would prioritise the democratic accountability of fiscal and monetary policy across the whole UK.
Download SPERI paper no. 20: The Revenge of Sovereignty: the SNP, the Financial Crisis and UK Constitutional Reform.
Paper No. 19: Contemporary Discourses on the Environment-Economy Nexus by Hayley Stevenson
For over two decades, the concept of sustainable development has been salient in political discourse. But its promise of reconciling economic development, social welfare, and environmental sustainability has proven rather elusive. In recent years we’ve seen numerous competing concepts emerge in debates about sustainable economic development. While many advance ideas of a green economy and green growth, others talk about wellbeing, gross national happiness, inclusive wealth, harmony with nature, de-growth, steady-state economy, and buen vivir (living well).
This rhetorical diversity shows that there is no single vision for reconciling environmental sustainability and economic development. But the varied terminology itself obscures actual points of agreement and disagreement.
This paper reports on a bilingual ‘Q study’ of international debates about sustainable economic development. It reveals that three discourses underpin these debates: Radical Transformationism; Cooperative Reformism; and Statist Progressivism). The paper dissects these discourses and contextualises their key points of contention in wider sustainability debates over the past two decades.
SPERI PAPER No.19: Contemporary Discourses on the Environment-Economy Nexus.
Paper No. 18: Addressing Food Poverty in the UK: Charity, Rights and Welfare by Hannah Lambie-Mumford
This SPERI paper presents findings from a study into the rise of charitable emergency food provision in the UK and its implications for food rights. Since the mid-2000s there has been a proliferation of charitable projects providing help to people in need who would otherwise not be able to access food and the research sought to examine what this meant for the progressive realisation of the right to food for all in the UK. The research found that emergency food charities were valued sites of care and social solidarity, doing important work in local communities. However, with a particular focus on the social acceptability and sustainability of food access through these systems, the research also found that emergency food charity did not live up to ‘right to food’ standards. The findings highlight how charitable emergency food providers are in practice assuming the responsibility of alleviating acute food crises in the absence of the adequate state response that the notion of a ‘right to food’ requires. This paper argues that the human right to food provides a progressive solution to rising levels of food need in the UK and that policy makers alongside other stakeholders should work together to develop a right to food strategy as a matter of urgency.
SPERI PAPER No.18: Addressing Food Poverty in the UK: Charity, Rights and Welfare.
Paper No.17: The Global Governance of Global Crisis: Why the G20 Summit was Created and What We still Need it to Do by Tony Payne
In advance of the next G20 Summit which will take place in Brisbane, Australia on 15-16 November 2014, Tony Payne advocates the need for an effective, functioning G20. The body was elevated to leaders’ level in order to steer the apparatus of global governance through times of great uncertainty from 2008 onwards. Its record is not without achievement over its short life, but remains disappointing overall. Many commentators talk of the G20’s decline, which makes its next summit an important test of its efficacy. The G20 needs substantial institutional reform to become what we all now need it to be.
Paper No.16: Credit Rating Agencies: A Constitutive and Diachronic Analysis by Ginevra Marandola and Timothy Sinclair
Credit rating agencies are poorly understood institutions and thus far efforts to govern them through rule-making have been ineffective. In this paper, Timothy Sinclair and Ginevra Marandola argue attention to rules governing behaviour is actually mistaken when it comes to finance and rating agencies. The global financial crisis occurred not because of rule-breaking but because some relatively simple but crucial social relationships came apart and prevented market actors from transacting with each other, as they had prior to the crisis. This breakdown involves quite different sorts of rules to those normally considered by regulators. Regulation has not made rating more sound and transparent, and there seems little appreciation of the barriers to improvement. The authors highlight the weaknesses of the typical resort to regulative rules, and show why it has not worked in the case of the credit rating agencies. Agencies have abandoned the norms that made them essential organizations in financial markets: the authors discuss some measures they think will return credit rating agencies to their role as reliable ‘information intermediaries.’ Rating cannot become a science, but the diachronic and constitutive approach advocated here should help prevent credit rating agencies becoming a catalyst to another global financial crisis.
Paper No. 15: The Pricing of Everything by George Monbiot
This Paper is drawn from the Annual SPERI Lecture given by George Monbiot in The Octagon at the University of Sheffield on 29 April 2014. George Monbiot’s lecture is a powerful summary of his ongoing commentary and critique of neoliberal doctrine and its impact on environmental and social sustainability.
Paper No. 14: The hyper-Anglicisation of active labour market policy: facilitating and exemplifying a flawed growth model by Craig Berry
The paper analyses the UK’s approach to active labour market policy, which has been a central feature of economic statecraft in the UK since the 1990s. Yet despite the UK pioneering the ‘supply side revolution’, the country spends little on this area of policy in comparison to most other European countries. Expenditure is heavily concentrated on relatively inexpensive ‘job-search’ services, and active labour market policy interventions in fact overlap with cost-reducing ‘welfare to work’ initiatives, designed to improve work incentives for those with the lowest incomes. Despite a rhetorical indictment of New Labour policy in this area, the coalition government has continued and intensified recent policy practice, and as such focused on compelling individuals to accept low-paid, low-quality employment opportunities. The paper argues that active labour market policy is not a response to labour market conditions, but constitutive of the institutional framework which gives rise to certain labour market forms. Low spending does not mean that active labour market policy is marginal to the UK’s growth model and associated economic statecraft; rather, spending on job-search services seems to typify the understanding of employment – and the state’s limited role in determining the level and nature of employment – inherent in the Anglo-liberal growth model.
Paper No. 13: Climate Risk, Big Data and the Weather Market by Jo Bates
This paper analyses the development of weather index-based risk products as a response to climate instability. Through analysis of two different forms of weather market – weather derivatives and weather index-based insurance schemes for farmers in developing countries – the paper makes the key argument that it is important to understand how these emerging responses to climate change seem likely to empower established economic interests, whilst deepening the threats facing the majority, and particularly the most vulnerable in society.
Paper No.12: Civic Capitalism by Colin Hay and Tony Payne
It is time to move on from the analysis of the failings of the now infamous Anglo-liberal model of capitalism. This paper sets the basic outlines of a new model that will work better in advanced capitalist societies: ‘Civic Capitalism’. Here the word civic is deployed in its simplest and most straightforward sense – ‘pertaining to’ and ‘working for’ all of us in society, not just as consumers, or rational egotists, or even voters, but rather as citizens of a democratic polity.
Nine core elements of a new model are identified and explored. They address issues of ideology, the role of the state, the regulation of markets, the promotion of sustainable development, the idea of social quality, the redress of inequality and the reform of global governance.
In calling for the development of a civic capitalist alternative we need to remind ourselves that capitalism can and must be made to work for us. We can no longer be driven by its perceived imperatives and by those who have claimed for far too long – and, as it turns out, falsely – to be able to discern for us what capitalism needs. We argue here that it is now time to ask what capitalism can do for us and not what we can do for capitalism. If civic capitalism has a single mantra, then that is it.
Paper No.11: Britain’s Post Crisis Political Economy: A ‘Recovery’ through Regressive Redistribution by Jeremy Green and Scott Lavery
In this paper Green and Lavery question the foundations of Britain’s much-vaunted economic recovery. They argue that, acting in tandem, the impact of Quantitative Easing and key processes of labour market restructuring have made the burden of economic adjustment highly regressive, redistributing wealth upwards and privileging asset-holders. The present growth model must be reoriented towards a recovery that stops and then reverses this bias towards growth that benefits the few. This would involve a combination of fiscal and monetary policy measures alongside an effort to drive wage-led growth and lessen the dependence upon private household debt.
Paper No.10: The Hollande Presidency, the Eurozone Crisis & the Politics of Fiscal Rectitude by Ben Clift (SPERI Honorary Research Fellow & Professor of Political Economy, University of Warwick)
This paper analyses the political economy of the Hollande Presidency in France, evaluating the economic policies pursued by the French Socialist President since May 2012. It explains the limited coherence and success of economic policy under Hollande in terms of constraints operating at domestic and European levels, and through credibility concerns of financial markets. Domestically, it highlights difficulties managing the presidential majority, notably due to presidentialised factionalism within French Socialism. At the European level it explores disagreements within the Franco-German relationship over which economic ideas should underpin macroeconomic policies to tackle Europe’s recession and efforts to resolve the Eurozone crisis.
Paper No.9: The Social Bases of Austerity: European Tunnel Vision & the Curious Case of the Missing Left by Stephanie Mudge
The grip of austerity in European politics presents a double puzzle: electorally weak centre-left parties that appear unable or unwilling to formulate an alternative, and the surprising efficiency with which the EU, international institutions, and national governments have jointly pursued ‘fiscal consolidation’. This is all the more surprising in historical perspective, since many left parties emerged from the last great crisis as vehicles for building voter appeal on the basis of a marriage of ‘new’ economics with the traditional leftist theme of equality. Why are today’s centre-left parties failing to replay this historical role? This paper looks into this puzzle by considering how the relationship between professional economics and party politics changed between the late interwar years and the present, noting that this relationship has produced two kinds of authority figures in unsettled times: the national, party-based economist (NPE) of the 1930s versus the European economist-technocrat (EET) that features prominently today. I suggest that the EET expresses a historically specific European political order in which professional economics tends to exert authority over, not through, partisan politics. This shift, I argue, may help to explain the curious persistence of tunnel vision in European politics since the crisis.
Paper No.8: The Crisis of the Euro: The Problem of German Power Revisited by Helen Thompson (Reader in Politics & Director of Studies at Clare College, University of Cambridge & Honorary Research Fellow at SPERI)
The durability of the euro appears to rest on the impossibility of abandoning it, rather than reform that would address its fundamental flaws. In practice, this makes the euro dependent on Germany’s commitment to maintain it. This paper considers whether Germany’s commitment to the euro is proven in the context of its history with European monetary arrangements since the last years of Bretton Woods and its actions during the euro zone crisis in light of German interests in the sovereign debt and banking crisis. It argues that Germany’s support for European monetary arrangements has always been conditional on Germany’s ability to insist on monetary stability and that the conjunction of the reappearance of German structural monetary power in the bond markets and Germany’s actions during the crisis have made the euro zone a site of potentially disintegrative conflict. It concludes that Germany’s commitment to the euro is unproven.
Paper No.7: Are We There Yet? Growth, rebalancing and the pseudo-recovery by Craig Berry
In 2013, economic growth in Britain started to gather pace, after several years of under-performance. This has led to claims that the British economy is finally recovering, and moreover, that the ‘austerity’ pursued by the coalition government since 2010 has been successful. This paper offers a sustained scrutiny of such claims, and examines evidence on whether the economy is ‘rebalancing’ away from the key aspects of the pre-crisis growth model – as promised by the coalition government upon taking office. The paper argues that the resurgence of growth is, to some extent, illusory. Insofar as the economy is experiencing recovery, it is best characterised as a ‘pseudo-recovery’ in that it has been facilitated by a return to the pre-crisis growth model. Given that the flaws and contradictions of the pre-crisis growth model have not been addressed by the coalition government, the recovery is likely to prove unsustainable.
Paper No.6: The UK’s Innovation Deficit & How to Repair it by Richard Jones (Professor of Physics and Pro-Vice-Chancellor of Research and Innovation at the University of Sheffield)
The UK’s economy is much less research and development (R&D) intensive than it was thirty years ago, and it is now significantly less R&D intensive than other developed economies. This paper argues that this decline, primarily in applied research carried out in the private sector and in government funded strategic research, represents an important loss of the UK’s innovative capacity, is a direct consequence of recent changes in its political economy, and reflects in a highly developed form more general worldwide trends. The need for radical innovations in the material and biological realms is highlighted, for example, by the challenges of developing competitively priced low-carbon energy sources, and in caring for ageing populations in a cost effective way. If the UK is to play its part in meeting these challenges, and if it is to develop a new, sustainable basis for long-term economic growth, this loss of innovative capacity needs to be reversed.
Paper No.5: The Great Uncertainty by Colin Hay & Tony Payne
This paper emerges out of a series of blogs that we jointly posted on SPERI Comment between 30 January and 18 July 2013. They sought to set out and link together the different aspects of SPERI’s intellectualt agenda. The blogs attracted a certain amount of attention and discussion and are gathered up here into a single argument for ease of access.
In the paper we claim that the current era in which we are living is best labelled ‘The Great Uncertainty’ and suggest, by deliberate use of this term, that the present conjuncture is being shaped by a remarkable, and hugely challenging, coalescence of three major processes of structural change occurring simultaneously and interacting in all manner of complicated ways.
They can be distinguished analytically as follows:
• Financial crisis: a largely Western crisis brought about by neoliberal excess and now rendering the resumption of economic growth a severe conundrum for the US, Japan and nearly all major European economies and a problem at least for the rest of the global economy;
• Shifting economic power: the recent intensification of longstanding movements in the locus of economic power in the world characterised by the rise of countries like China, India, Brazil and several others too;
• Environmental threat: the eventual realisation that climate change is both real and accelerating and is now asking the most serious questions about the on-going viability of traditional notions of economic growth and indeed the good society itself.
Paper No.4: How to Make a Bad Problem Worse: The US Federal Reserve’s Rescue of Bear Stearns by Matthew Watson (Professor of Political Economy, University of Warwick)
When Bear Stearns, one of Wall Street’s fabled pre-crisis ‘big five’ investment banks, faced imminent collapse in March 2008, the Federal Reserve intervened. It blurred the boundaries of its own legal remit by using public money to help facilitate Bear’s purchase by the commercial bank, JPMorgan Chase. It did so to prevent increasingly worthless mortgage-backed securities from creating gaping holes in the balance sheets of the entire US banking industry. Yet the Fed’s actions also ran contrary to US regulators’ justification for their tolerance towards the complex derivatives that created the mortgage securitisation business in the first place: namely, that they provide the impetus for ‘market completeness’ by synthetically linking one financial market to another. Full market completion has been the objective of US lawmakers since the Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act of 1999 formally dismantled the Glass-Steagall ‘wall’ between investment and commercial banking activities, and stipulating the abstract conditions of full market completion has also been one of the most highly prized goals of pure economics since the seminal theoretical writings of Léon Walras in the 1870s. However, general equilibrium economics has never been able to provide a genuinely economic rationale for policies that push in the direction of market completion. Moreover, the Fed’s actions in using Morgan as a conduit for rescuing Bear have in practice merely complicated the matter further. They were presented as facilitating a market rescue that would prevent future financial crises from occurring, but they had the effect of allowing the largest banks to take the whole of the subprime securitisation cycle in-house. This in turn makes market-based checks and balances against the future inflation of subprime securitisation bubbles much less robust.
Paper No.3: Power, Politics & the City of London: Before & After the Great Financial Crisis by Sukhdev Johal (Reader, Royal Holloway, University of London), Micheal Moran (Professor Emeritus of Government, University of Manchester) & Karel Williams (Professor, University of Manchester & Director of the Centre for Research on Socio-Cultural Change)
The paper examines the power of finance in the UK in the light of debates about the meaning of power. It distinguishes four faces of power. Three are drawn from an established political science literature: decision, agenda control and non-decision. The fourth is derived from the work of Foucault, capillary power. We argue that these constitute historical strategies by finance in the UK to escape democratic control, and chart the historical evolution of these strategies. The financial crisis of 2007-8 involved the collapse of a strategy pursued in the last generation to install a system of capillary power. Finance has therefore been driven back to exercising power by the control over decision.
Paper No.2: Capitalist Diversity, Work & Employment Relations by Christel Lane (Professor Emeritus of Economic Sociology, University of Cambridge) & Geoffrey Wood (Professor of International Business, University of Warwick)
The great value of the literature on comparative capitalism is its emphasis on the persistent viability of alternative models to market liberalism. Central to the viability of more heavily coordinated markets are specific production regimes, supported through cooperative work and employment relations, encompassing significant participation and involvement, strong industry and firm skills sets, and bargaining centralisation. In contrast, the liberal market model is distinguished by less strong unions, decentralised bargaining, weaker worker rights, insecure tenure and flexible labour markets. As such, this approach has considerable value as a theoretical starting point both for categorising different national industrial relations regimes and in explaining the spatial concentration of specific sets of industrial relations practices. At the same time, whilst the nation-state remains an important level of analysis, there is considerable variety in practice both within nations and capitalist archetypes. This would reflect the fact that institutions are rarely closely coupled, with distinct regional and sectoral dynamics. Moreover, supra-national forces may not only erode national distinctiveness, but also reinforce difference between nations.
Paper No.1: The British Growth Crisis: a Crisis of and for Growth by Professor Colin Hay
The global financial crisis which first began to make itself apparent in 2007 and then broke with full force in the autumn of 2008 has generated an intense debate in academic, business, journalistic and political circles alike about what went wrong and how operational faults in the prevailing Western model of political economy might best be repaired. More importantly, it has at last also begun to stimulate a deeper, albeit slower moving, consideration of whether the Anglo-American world in particular was working with the right model of political economy in the first place. It is the view I seek to defend here that if we are to address properly the former set of concerns – with what went wrong and how we might start to put it right – it is with the latter that we must start. For it is only by acknowledging the complicity and culpability of a decidedly and distinctly Anglo-American conception of capitalism in the inflation and then bursting of the bubble, that we can begin to see the full extent of what is broken and what now must be fixed. It is to this agenda that the present paper speaks. It draws on a now substantial body of empirical research, but it seeks to do so in a rather novel way – to argue that the crisis is best seen as a crisis of and indeed for growth and not as a crisis of debt. It is, moreover, a crisis of and for an excessively liberalised Anglo-American form of capitalism and the Anglo-liberal growth model (as I will call it) to which it gave rise. This is a form of capitalism and a growth model that was inherently unstable and threatened the entire world economy – its excesses cannot be tolerated again.