Tag Archives for Donald Trump
Why political analysis needs probability and history to address uncertainty
Unexpected political outcomes are more understandable if we locate political life in a historical and international context. This is the fourth post in our series exploring uncertainty and the challenges it poses to social science Political punditry has had a bad couple of years. Indeed, the failure to predict the dramatic political outcomes of a number of elections and referendums … Continue reading
Trump, the Russia sanctions and Europe’s energy future
The significant deterioration in US-Russia relations and new sanctions could profoundly impact the EU and its energy needs The melodrama around Donald Trump has obscured the significance of recent events in American politics to the energy future of Europe. At the end of July President Trump signed into law a bill passed with near unanimity by Congress that, among other … Continue reading
The future history of Donald Trump
The concerns and conflict that are already central to the Trump presidency will be key to understanding Trump as future history The Trump presidency is still in its first year. It has barely begun, but already the possibility that we are entering one of history’s defining moments looks increasingly likely. Trump is future history, and yet we still know relatively … Continue reading
Learning from China’s success? Europe in the 21st century global economy
Europe can learn lessons from China’s development and should agree a new common approach on trade Following the election of President Trump on an ‘America First’ and anti-globalisation platform the debate about the future of international trade and international competition policy became a hot political issue. Some commentators had hoped that the issue might disappear from the front pages after … Continue reading
The (distorted) issue of inequality
The populist right’s focus on race and immigration claims to be about fairness and inequality, but actually distracts from the more acute matter of the concentration of wealth and income at the very top As many have already pointed out, the vote for ‘Brexit’ and the election of Donald Trump are linked by their association with the apparent triumph of … Continue reading
Donald Trump, Dodd-Frank and the politics of academic critique
As opposition mounts to post-crisis regulatory reforms, scholars should rethink their critical evaluation of the progress that has been made After his inauguration on 20 January 2017, U.S. President Donald Trump announced his intention to roll back key sections of the Dodd-Frank Consumer Protection Act signed into law by President Barack Obama in 2010. The markets were jubilant. As the … Continue reading
The end of globalisation?
Proclamations of the ‘death’ of globalisation are premature Globalisation is in critical condition. It may even be ‘dead’. This is the emerging consensus among many commentators. Economically, the claim is based on the observed decline in global trade growth and cross-border investment flows since the financial crisis. Politically, the argument is grounded in the plethora of stalled trade deals, from … Continue reading
The grief before the storm
Overcoming the grief caused by Trump’s victory requires us to analyse the sources of our pain When Hillary Clinton gave her concession speech on November 9th, admitting defeat to an opponent who had received a lower share of the popular vote than she had, many of her supporters in the room with her, and those watching from afar, actually wept … Continue reading
Trump and Brexit
Trump’s victory and Brexit could unravel the western economic and political order which has been the framework of world politics for the last seventy years Trump’s victory in the US presidential election has been compared to the vote for Brexit. Both were driven by the anger and despair of the white working class, and their rejection of the liberal, cosmopolitan … Continue reading
First thoughts on the Trump victory
There is no quick fix to the Trump phenomenon, but to win again the US centre-left must build broad class alliances that include the white poor There are times when being right is a luxury too far. This is one of those times. It was possible to see Trump coming, but it was also possible – until about midnight on … Continue reading
The Left, modern work and the new working class
Developing a new moral politics of work in the 21st century could help the left regain traditional supporters and connect to new working class groups Among the themes in this year of political surprises on both sides of the Atlantic – from the victory of the Leave campaign to the candidacies of Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders – is predominantly … Continue reading
Getting ready for Donald Trump
It is time to begin worrying about his misguided, superficial and bombastic approach to US problems and politics There is a growing realisation, not to mention a creeping fear, in the upper echelons of the American political establishment that Donald Trump might actually win the Republican Party nomination for President in 2016. There is less fear that, if he does … Continue reading
The final frontier? Promise and risk in Iran’s emerging market
Iran’s huge economic potential comes with significant risk. Foreign companies are engaging but only at arm’s length. The announcement of Iran’s preliminary nuclear deal in July 2015 and the subsequent easing of sanctions augured a brighter economic outlook for the former pariah state. Commentaries hailing Iran as ‘the billion dollar growth opportunity’ and the ‘best emerging market for years to … Continue reading →
16 October 2017 by Richard Woodward
Categories: SPERI Comment | Tags: Donald Trump, Iran, richard woodward, trade | Leave a comment