Tag Archives for researching uncertainty

Why political analysis needs probability and history to address uncertainty

Unexpected political outcomes are more understandable if we locate political life in a historical and international context.  This is the fourth post in our series exploring uncertainty and the challenges it poses to social science Political punditry has had a bad couple of years. Indeed, the failure to predict the dramatic political outcomes of a number of elections and referendums … Continue reading

9 October 2017 by
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Politics has only become uncertain because the rules of the game have changed

Politics is not inherently unpredictable, but experts have failed to see major change coming because the way it is practiced has been transformed. This is the third post in our series exploring uncertainty and the challenges it poses to social science In order to predict the future of politics, we need to fully understand the present. An obvious logic, for sure, … Continue reading

5 October 2017 by
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Is this really an age of uncertainty?

Glen O'Hara

The recent failures of electoral polling have been over-stated. Our era is politically volatile, but not unusually so. This is the second post in our series exploring uncertainty and the challenges it poses to social science. Shocks, spills and surprises are all the political rage these days. The UK’s vote for Brexit, the election of Donald Trump as President of … Continue reading

28 September 2017 by
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Researching uncertainty

Craig Berry

The unpredictability of the present era exposes social science’s uneasy relationship with uncertainty. Yet political economists should embrace the inescapability of this condition as a key foundation of inquiry. This is the first in a new series of posts which explores uncertainty and the business of predicting the future in political research. In 2013, Colin Hay and Tony Payne claimed … Continue reading

27 September 2017 by
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