Tag Archives for researching uncertainty

The great uncertainty paradox

Colin Hay

Uncertainty is the essence of social, political and economic systems. This is the final post on our series on researching uncertainty Uncertainty is troubling, collective uncertainty particularly so.  To find ourselves in a context that can be described as ‘The Great Uncertainty’ is, then, likely to prove greatly troubling – at least to those willing to accept the accuracy of … Continue reading

2 November 2017 by
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Economic uncertainty and economics imperialism

Matthew Watson

The question of why uncertainty does not feature more prominently as an economic ontology requires answers that are rooted in intellectual history.  This post, the sixth in our series on uncertainty, searches for them by looking at how economic history has become increasingly colonised by economic theory, and economic theory by mathematics. The decision to focus this series of SPERI … Continue reading

26 October 2017 by
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Forecasting inflation amid uncertainty: have we forgotten the dog and the frisbee?

The Bank of England’s inflation forecasts in the period since the Brexit vote have been largely inaccurate – is this because the Bank has forgotten the rule of thumb championed by its own chief economist? This is the fifth post in our series on the impact of uncertainty on social science It is hard to prophecise, particularly about the future. … Continue reading

18 October 2017 by
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Why political analysis needs probability and history to address uncertainty

Unexpected political outcomes are more understandable if we locate political life in a historical and international context.  This is the fourth post in our series exploring uncertainty and the challenges it poses to social science Political punditry has had a bad couple of years. Indeed, the failure to predict the dramatic political outcomes of a number of elections and referendums … Continue reading

9 October 2017 by
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Politics has only become uncertain because the rules of the game have changed

Politics is not inherently unpredictable, but experts have failed to see major change coming because the way it is practiced has been transformed. This is the third post in our series exploring uncertainty and the challenges it poses to social science In order to predict the future of politics, we need to fully understand the present. An obvious logic, for sure, … Continue reading

5 October 2017 by
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Is this really an age of uncertainty?

Glen O'Hara

The recent failures of electoral polling have been over-stated. Our era is politically volatile, but not unusually so. This is the second post in our series exploring uncertainty and the challenges it poses to social science. Shocks, spills and surprises are all the political rage these days. The UK’s vote for Brexit, the election of Donald Trump as President of … Continue reading

28 September 2017 by
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Researching uncertainty

Craig Berry

The unpredictability of the present era exposes social science’s uneasy relationship with uncertainty. Yet political economists should embrace the inescapability of this condition as a key foundation of inquiry. This is the first in a new series of posts which explores uncertainty and the business of predicting the future in political research. In 2013, Colin Hay and Tony Payne claimed … Continue reading

27 September 2017 by
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