Tag Archives for trade
A critique of proposed solutions to the German trade surplus
Germany’s large trade surplus, especially with the US, has become a significant political issue, but remedying the situation is not straightforward Large trade imbalances have political implications and are very often exploited for political gains. This is certainly true of Germany’s gigantic, and controversial, trade surplus, which in 2016 was around €270 billion ($297 billion) or 8.6% of Germany’s annual … Continue reading
The final frontier? Promise and risk in Iran’s emerging market
Iran’s huge economic potential comes with significant risk. Foreign companies are engaging but only at arm’s length. The announcement of Iran’s preliminary nuclear deal in July 2015 and the subsequent easing of sanctions augured a brighter economic outlook for the former pariah state. Commentaries hailing Iran as ‘the billion dollar growth opportunity’ and the ‘best emerging market for years to … Continue reading
The balancing act of Brexit and digital trade
As the UK leaves the EU it risks a potential ‘digital cliff-edge’. How it navigates its way through global tensions around digital trade rules will orientate the shape of the economy for years to come Recent weeks have seen the news of the government looking to rush through new data protection laws in the UK, trumpeted in the press as … Continue reading
Trump, the Russia sanctions and Europe’s energy future
The significant deterioration in US-Russia relations and new sanctions could profoundly impact the EU and its energy needs The melodrama around Donald Trump has obscured the significance of recent events in American politics to the energy future of Europe. At the end of July President Trump signed into law a bill passed with near unanimity by Congress that, among other … Continue reading
Brexit risks harming African economies that trade with the UK
The UK must pay urgent attention to the complexities of African trade in order to avoid Brexit having damaging effects In my last SPERI blog I outlined my concern that despite the UK government’s commitment to reinvigorating the Commonwealth, African countries would be sidelined in favour of larger and more important markets in the UK’s post-Brexit ‘Global Britain’ trade strategy. … Continue reading
The end of globalisation?
Proclamations of the ‘death’ of globalisation are premature Globalisation is in critical condition. It may even be ‘dead’. This is the emerging consensus among many commentators. Economically, the claim is based on the observed decline in global trade growth and cross-border investment flows since the financial crisis. Politically, the argument is grounded in the plethora of stalled trade deals, from … Continue reading
UK regions, the European Union and manufacturing exports
New analysis of the trade in goods between the UK’s regions and the EU sheds new light on the potential regional implications of Brexit It is too simplistic to claim that the UK has a single relationship with the EU. Yet the regional dimension of UK/EU relations has received relatively little attention in the public debate around the implications of … Continue reading
The Trans-Pacific Partnership – A Bridge Too Far?
Differences between national capitalisms may mean that successful completion of the negotiations over TPP proves elusive Despite the positive spin that has accompanied negotiations over the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), reaching an agreement that would satisfy all 12 partners was always going to be difficult. The differences to be bridged are considerable. The TPP originated with an agreement among four of … Continue reading
Export-led growth and the failure of economic rebalancing
The trade deficit is growing – and the Transatlantic trade deal is unlikely to rectify this The Conservative Party’s general election manifesto could not have been clearer: ‘A sustainable recovery must be driven by growth in exports’. A preceding speech by George Osborne specified ‘net exports’, explaining that rising exports had to be matched by falling imports, as Britain once … Continue reading
Making the unpolishable Brexit turd sparkle?
The economic logic of hard Brexit has always been a chimera, and our political class is finally waking up to the impossibility of delivering it in any meaningful sense During the New Labour years, Peter Mandelson was regularly maligned for the infamous quote about being ‘intensely relaxed about people getting filthy rich’. This statement was often taken out of context, … Continue reading →
13 July 2018 by Matt Bishop
Categories: SPERI Comment | Tags: Brexit, European Union, Matt Bishop, Theresa May, trade | Leave a comment